01
Theme · 01 Live · 100 names

The AI supply chain.

Eight physical layers — from rare earths to data-center power — sit between hyperscaler capex and a finished Rubin GPU. Every layer has its own physics, its own bottleneck, and its own catalyst calendar. This is the picks-and-shovels theme.

The market still stares at NVIDIA. The actual physics chokepoints sit five layers further upstream — at hybrid bonders that don't have alternatives, at indium phosphide wafers grown by three companies in the world, at gas turbines with three-year lead times. Hyperscalers have guided $700B of 2026 capex; that number is abstract until you ask what it physically has to become. We map it.

Today's reads

★ Live signal: AI Semis readout Book RSI 60.85, breadth 84.2%, 17 names overbought and 0 oversold. Prose generation requires ANTHROPIC_API_KEY — see SKILL.md. Thesis intact until data says otherwise.

Theme stats
As at 24 May 06:00 Dubai
Names tracked
100
Tier A
18
Tier B
49
Tier C
31
Live signals
12
Layers
8
Conviction mix across 100 names
Auto-derived from watchlist-current.md · 24 May
Highest · 0
High · 6
Med-high · 18
Medium · 76
Highest — deepest research coverage High — add on pullback Med-high — wait Medium — watch
★ Tier A · 6 names

Highest research conviction.

Names with the deepest fundamental validation — bottleneck position confirmed, earnings beat with raised guide, valuation acceptable for the growth profile. Research tier only; check active buy signals below for current entry timing.

● Active buy signals · 6 names

Fundamentals and technicals aligned.

Names where research conviction (tier A/B) meets a live technical entry — scanner ENTRY signal, or trending above 50MA with RSI 40-65. These are actionable now.

★ Memory · HBM · photonics · the May 22 prints

The supply chain is winning the AI capex cycle.

HBM tightness is the bottleneck Jensen keeps coming back to on every NVIDIA call — and the May 22 prints validated it across the stack. Micron RSI 85.5 with no fade. SK Hynix +11.98%. Samsung +14%. The memory layer is the cleanest expression of the thesis right now. Photonics extending (LITE/CIEN/AAOI bid). Power layer rolling over — VST and CEG flashed STRONG_EXIT yesterday, confirming the rotation we called.

HBM tightness
Locked
SK Hynix + Samsung + Micron — all hyperscaler-booked through 2027
NVDA Q1 FY27 dc rev
$39.1B
+73% YoY · Rubin transition on track
Photonics demand
Accelerating
AI clusters force 800G→1.6T optical upgrade cycle
Power layer
Rotation
VST · CEG · BE flashed exit signals — sector top forming
02 · 06The Stack

From silicon to data center.

Eight physical layers, one narrowing aperture. Each layer has its own physics, its own moat, its own catalyst calendar — and a different bottleneck dynamic.

ALL 100 L1 7 L2 7 L3 8 L4 8 L5 25 L6 16 L7 16 L8 13
01
Layer · 01 / 08

Hyperscalers / Neoclouds

7 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

02
Layer · 02 / 08

Compute / Silicon

7 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

03
Layer · 03 / 08

Foundry / EDA / WFE

8 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

04
Layer · 04 / 08

Memory · HBM, NAND, HBF

8 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

05
Layer · 05 / 08

Bonding / Photonics / Substrate

25 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

06
Layer · 06 / 08

Bottlenecks / Materials

16 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

07
Layer · 07 / 08

Test

16 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

08
Layer · 08 / 08

Power & Thermal

13 names mapped to this physical layer of the AI supply chain.

03 · 06Today's Brief

Build · Trim · Coiled.

Three rotating buckets from the latest scan + research overlay. Each card carries entry · stop · invalidation and a thesis grounded in the bottleneck physics.

Build · Entries4
TSM L3 Build
TSM
WDC L4 Build
WDC
LRCX L3 Build
LRCX
KLAC L3 Build
KLAC
Trim · Take Profits4
HY9H L4 Trim
HY9H
VRT L8 Trim
VRT
GDX AI Semis Trim
GDX
LWLG L5 Trim
LWLG
Coiled · Setups4
ANET L1 Coiled
ANET
357780 L7 Coiled
357780
TER L7 Coiled
TER
CEG L8 Coiled
CEG