Layer 0 · WULF — TeraWulf
Thesis
The smaller-cap AI HPC pivot story — 60% of Q1 revenue is now from AI HPC versus zero a year ago, with $3.1B cash on the balance sheet to fund the build-out. Tier B because the Q1 EPS missed by 5x consensus, the financial mechanics are still ugly (D&A drag on capex), and execution risk on the ramp is severe.
What it does + financial print
TeraWulf converts hydroelectric and nuclear-adjacent Bitcoin mining sites in upstate New York into AI HPC colocation capacity. The Lake Mariner facility is the flagship. The model is similar to IREN — depreciating crypto economics being converted into multi-year colo / GPUaaS ARR — but with a domestic-renewable angle that resonates with hyperscaler ESG sourcing.
Q1 2026 printed $34.0M revenue versus $32.6M consensus (HPC lease ~$21M, AI HPC now 60% of mix). EPS missed at -$1.01 versus -$0.19 — a major miss reflecting capex run-rate plus D&A acceleration. $3.1B liquidity (cash + restricted) keeps the build-out funded.
Bull case
The AI HPC pivot continues to ramp — by Q4 FY26, HPC is 80%+ of revenue and the company prints a positive EBITDA quarter. A second hyperscaler or Tier-2 GPU cloud signs a multi-year colo contract anchored at Lake Mariner. The $3.1B cash funds capacity expansion without further dilution.
Gap / bear case
The EPS miss is a warning that the model is not yet self-funding — D&A on rapidly-deployed GPU clusters is eating the lease economics. Small-cap, single-site concentration means any operational hiccup (power curtailment, contract delay) is binary. The stock is +27% on the month and would unwind fast on bad print.
Trigger to upgrade / downgrade
Upgrade to Tier A on a positive EBITDA quarter combined with a second anchor customer disclosed. Downgrade on a second consecutive >3x EPS miss or capex revision higher without ARR proof.
The trade
- Entry zone: $17-19 on pullback (gap-fill from April breakout)
- Stop: $14.50 close (200-day)
- Position size: 0.75% NLV (smaller-cap risk)
- Catalyst date: Q2 print August 12 2026
- Conviction: 6/10