Layer 7 · VST — Vistra Corp.
Thesis
Vistra is the second IPP merchant-power + nuclear AI-DC story — Q1 revenue $5.64B beat consensus by 8%, FY26 EPS estimate $11.22 on AI data centre demand, Cogentrix 5,500 MW gas portfolio acquisition closing in 2H 2026. Like CEG, fundamentals are Tier A but the May 11 daily brief flagged a STRONG_EXIT technical signal not yet reversed — tactical B until the chart stabilises.
What it does + financial print
Layer 7 IPP merchant power. Vistra is the largest competitive power generator in Texas with significant nuclear (Comanche Peak), coal-to-gas, and gas-peaker assets. The AI thesis: long-term PPAs with Amazon and Meta on a substantial fraction of EBITDA, plus the Cogentrix acquisition adds 5,500 MW of gas portfolio in load-pocket markets (PJM, NEPOOL) where AI data centres are clustered.
Q1 FY26: revenue $5.64B versus $5.24B consensus (beat by 8%). Adjusted EBITDA $1.49B. FY26 EPS estimate $11.22 on AI demand. Cogentrix 5,500 MW gas portfolio acquisition closes 2H 2026. Long-term PPAs with Amazon and Meta. 60%+ of EBITDA secured by contracts — high contracted-coverage gives downside protection. Live price $139.10 (May 17). 52-week range broadly intact but momentum has cooled.
Bull case
What gets this back to Tier A is the technical reversal — same playbook as CEG. Reclaim of the 50-day MA on volume, base-formation pattern, then add. Fundamentals are unambiguous and the Cogentrix close is a structural step-up.
Gap / bear case
The STRONG_EXIT signal from May 11 hasn't been reversed by price action. Cogentrix integration execution is the operational risk. Natural gas pricing is the cyclical-input variable.
Trigger to upgrade / downgrade
Upgrade trigger: technical reversal — reclaim of 50-day MA on volume plus higher-low base. Downgrade trigger: loss of $125 (technical breakdown level).
The trade
- Entry zone: $135-145 only on technical reversal; do NOT add in falling-knife window - Stop: $125 (technical breakdown) - Position size: 2% of NLV (scaled — full size on Tier A re-promote) - Catalyst date: Q2 print late July; Cogentrix closing milestones 2H - Conviction: 7/10 fundamentals, 5/10 tactical
End Tier B Part 2 — Layers 5-7, 22 names.