Layer 4 · SOI — Soitec
Live: EUR 148.05 · Earnings (last): Rev -10.2% YoY; NI -23.5% · Next earnings: May 27 FY release · Conviction: 3/10
Bottleneck context
Soitec manufactures engineered SOI wafers (FD-SOI, RF-SOI, POI) — specialty substrates used in RF, automotive and emerging power applications. Layer 4 enabler with a niche-monopoly profile in its sub-segments. The AI narrative pull is photonics-SOI and RF-SOI into 5G/optical front-end.
Why Tier C
Severe valuation/fundamentals divergence. YTD +447% against revenue -10.2% YoY and net income -23.5%. The stock has rerated on AI-themed flows while the underlying business is contracting. Flipped from Tier B to Tier C on this gap. The May 27 FY release is the gating catalyst — into the print this is a coin flip.
Watch trigger
A clean FY print with explicit AI/photonics revenue contribution call-out plus FY26 guide reaffirming or raising. Absent that, gravity wins.
Position guidance
No position into print. Post-print, only re-engage on revenue inflection — do NOT chase a "guide-in-line" rally.