Layer 7 · NVTS — Navitas Semiconductor
Live: USD 20.0 · Earnings (last): Q1 2026 — rev $8.6M (beat $8.18M); EPS -$0.04; +18% sequential rev growth · Next earnings: not within 60d · Conviction: 4/10
Bottleneck context
Navitas makes GaN (gallium nitride) and SiC (silicon carbide) power semiconductors. The AI-specific angle is the NVIDIA Rubin 800V power delivery architecture — at GTC 2026 Navitas demoed an 800V-to-6V power delivery board for Rubin, and Baird raised its PT $9 → $20 on this thesis. If the 800V architecture wins as the standard for next-gen AI racks, GaN/SiC vendors capture a high-margin layer that did not exist in pre-AI data centers.
Why Tier C
Real concerns. NVTS is still unprofitable (-$0.04 EPS) on a tiny $8.6M revenue base — the design-win narrative is much bigger than the financial reality, and one program slip from NVIDIA collapses the thesis. Insider selling has been reported. The stock is up 88% YTD and is held at +140% by some long names — the asymmetry is now negative. Direct AI exposure exists but in token-revenue form. Limited operating leverage shows up only in 2027+ if everything goes right.
Watch trigger
Q2 print shows revenue > $10M AND management confirms first dollar of Rubin-related revenue.
Position guidance
No position. Hold any existing position with a tight stop; do not initiate new.