Layer 1 · INTC — Intel Corporation
Thesis
The earnings turnaround is real — Q1 was a massive beat ($0.29 EPS vs $0.01 consensus), DC +22% YoY, AI is 60% of revenue. Tier B not Tier A because the stock is +360% TTM and at an all-time high $95.73 — the turnaround narrative is largely priced and execution risk on 18A foundry is still meaningful.
What it does + financial print
Intel is the integrated CPU + foundry story. Xeon (Granite Rapids / Sierra Forest) in data centres, Core Ultra in PCs, Gaudi in AI accelerators, and the 18A node ramping in Arizona as the foundry play. Under Lip-Bu Tan the narrative has shifted from "Intel can't execute" to "the 18A node is on schedule, AI silicon is shipping, and the foundry has customers" — speculation about a US government / TSMC JV adds optionality.
Q1 2026 (April 23) printed $13.58B revenue versus $12.42B consensus — a large beat — and $0.29 EPS versus $0.01 consensus (massive). Q2 guide raised to $13.8-14.8B versus $13.07B consensus, and $0.20 EPS versus $0.09. Stock hit ATH $95.73 on May 8.
Bull case
18A volume ramps Q4 26 with a named external customer disclosure (the unnamed third-party design Intel referenced becomes real). Gaudi3 / Gaudi4 captures a credible 5-10% AI accelerator share. A US-government-backed foundry JV is announced. Any one of these unlocks Tier A.
Gap / bear case
+360% TTM means the easy turnaround money is gone. The 18A node has to deliver real customer revenue, not just pilot lots — and Intel's history of foundry execution disappointments is long. AMD continues to take Xeon share in cloud. AI accelerator share remains in the low single digits.
Trigger to upgrade / downgrade
Upgrade to Tier A on a named 18A external customer disclosure with volume commitment, OR a pullback to $75-80 that holds. Downgrade on a 18A node delay or a Gaudi roadmap setback.
The trade
- Entry zone: $75-82 on pullback
- Stop: $68 close (50-day support)
- Position size: 1.5% NLV
- Catalyst date: Q2 print July 23 2026; 18A external customer announcement (TBD)
- Conviction: 6/10