Layer 4 · 042700 — Hanmi Semiconductor
Live: KRW 369,000 · Earnings (last): Q1 26 — miss; SK Hynix share loss accelerating · Next earnings: Aug 2026 · Conviction: 4/10
Bottleneck context
Hanmi is the legacy TC (thermo-compression) bonder supplier into SK Hynix HBM lines. For two years it traded as the single most direct HBM picks-and-shovels name in Korea. The thesis was: SK Hynix wins HBM, Hanmi wins the bonder socket, Hanmi compounds at a 50%+ rev CAGR.
Why Tier C
Thesis broken. ASMPT confirmed share take in TC bonding at SK Hynix; the HBM4 16-Hi roadmap requires hybrid bonding where Hanmi has no incumbent position. The stock dropped -10% in a single session on the confirmation. The Hanwha Semitech patent dispute is the only remaining bullish optionality and it is binary and slow. With consensus EPS now being revised down quarter-on-quarter, the multiple compression is not yet finished.
Watch trigger
A favourable Hanwha patent settlement plus a credible hybrid-bonding roadmap from Hanmi would warrant re-engagement. Absent that, watch for an SK Hynix share-recovery surprise.
Position guidance
No position. If holders are still long from higher levels, this is a "trim into strength" name, not a buy-the-dip name.